Improved Air Health Trends Indicator (AHTI)

UNSPSC categories

Normalized category

Executive summary

Health Canada is seeking a contractor to enhance the Air Health Trends Indicator (AHTI), which tracks health risks from short-term exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The current AHTI has limitations including limited geographic coverage, outdated mortality data (2001-2015), linear exposure-response assumptions, and inability to account for climate change impacts like wildfire smoke. The project aims to develop advanced statistical models that incorporate non-linear exposure-response relationships, multi-pollutant effects, cumulative exposures, climate-related factors, and expanded geographic coverage from 89 to 145 census divisions. The work involves three phases over three years: data collection and integration, methodological development, and advanced implementation with regional analysis.

Mandatory requirements

1. 01Project leader must have Ph.D from recognized university with specialization in Statistics, Epidemiology, and Medicine
2. 02Project leader must demonstrate research experience with ambient air pollution and public health in past 5 years (2020-2025) with 2 published papers
3. 03Project leader must demonstrate research experience with Canadian mortality and/or morbidity in past 5 years with 2 published papers
4. 04Project leader must demonstrate research experience with Bayesian modeling in past 5 years with 2 published papers
5. 05Project leader must demonstrate experience with statistical smoothing in past 5 years with 2 published papers
6. 06Project leader must demonstrate experience with time series or case-crossover models in past 5 years with 2 published papers
7. 07Project leader must demonstrate experience working with cumulative exposure for short-term air pollution effects with 1 published paper
8. 08Project leader must demonstrate experience with distributed lag non-linear models with 1 published paper
9. 09Project leader must demonstrate experience with trends in daily/annual associations between air pollution and public health with 1 published paper
10. 10Project leader must demonstrate experience with Air Health Trend Indicator (AHTI) with 1 published paper
11. 11Only Canadian Suppliers are eligible for this solicitation under Policy on Reciprocal Procurement

Suggested win themes

1. —Demonstrated track record with AHTI development and Canadian air pollution health research
2. —Strong publication portfolio covering all required technical areas with recent peer-reviewed papers
3. —Expertise in climate change impacts on air quality and health, particularly wildfire smoke modeling
4. —Advanced statistical capabilities in Bayesian methods, machine learning, and non-linear modeling approaches
5. —Experience with multi-provincial Canadian health datasets and census division-level analysis